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North Korea has announced it removed 8,000 spent fuel rods from its reactor in Yongbyon, presumably to reprocess them into weapons-grade plutonium. Ten years ago, that would have caused a major commotion with talk that a red line has been crossed, No longer. All nations involved in six-party nuclear disarmament talks are playing it cool, with South Korea, the U.S., China and even Japan reacting as if it is no big deal.
¡ß Whatever they do, it¡¯s a ¡°negotiation ploy¡±
The Korean government expressed ¡°serious concern¡± while at the same time saying it believed the move was a bid for leverage in negotiations. The official U.S. State Department position is that there have been similar announcements in the past. Within an hour of the statement, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi also downplayed the development as negotiating tactics.
During the first North Korean nuclear crisis of 1994, everyone reacted sensitively when North Korea started reprocessing after pulling out of the IAEA and Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Yet the second act that began in 2002 has been different. When Pyongyang first declared it had nuclear weapons in April 2003, U.S. President George W. Bush brushed it aside, calling it an ¡°old game of threats.¡± When it said it completed reprocessing spent fuel rods in October 2003, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell said, ¡°This is the third time we¡¯ve heard it.¡± And when the North again announced on Feb. 10 that it has nuclear arms, all the nations involved simply ignored it, saying that they had heard it all before.
¡ß Why doesn¡¯t anyone believe the North?
There are two broad reasons for this. One is that they believe the situation will not escalate, and the other is that they are waiting for North Korea to cross the line so they can slap sanctions on it. ¡°It¡¯s because they know North Korea has no more cards to play,¡± Prof. Chung Seo-yong of Myongji University says. ¡°The U.S. believes it can punish North Korea if the situation gets past a certain point and is waiting for its chance, and China believes the situation hasn¡¯t yet reached the point where Beijing must get directly involved.¡±
One national policy researcher used the following vivid metaphor. ¡°It¡¯s as if North Korea has gone on stage to do a show, but nobody is watching, so it starts taking off its clothes one piece at a time, but still nobody¡¯s watching, so now it¡¯s going to take off even its underwear... If it actually does take it all off, it will leave both the stripper and the audience in a rather embarrassing situation.¡± Since any hasty reaction would play into North Korea¡¯s hand, regardless of which way they choose, the parties involved are ignoring Pyongyang instead.
¡ß Could the North make extreme choices?
Pyongyang has become the little boy that cried wolf; what choices has it got left? ¡°If the U.S. continues to ignore North Korea to the end, despite Pyongyang¡¯s ratcheting up of tensions, even a nuclear test would be possible,¡± Prof. Nam Seong-wook of Korea University says. ¡°It will continue to use its present strategy for a couple more months, but in the long-term, it will consider all possible moves.¡± Prof. Kim Yeong-su of Sogang University says the belief that recent North Korean behavior was for negotiation use is mistaken. ¡°North Korea¡¯s strategic goal is to win recognition as a nuclear power. I don¡¯t think this string of actions aims to improve its negotiating position or to burn its boats,¡± he said.
Those who believe North Korean behavior is a negotiating ploy call it the ¡°salami tactic¡± -- cutting off one thin slice after another. Those who believe the North wants to be a nuclear state subscribe to the ¡°hedgehog¡± theory: it says weaker states must show their spikes because while they may be unable to take over other nations, at least nobody will invade them. In 1994, most experts were salami men, but this time around, the split between salami and hedgehog people is 50:50.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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