Only a day before it fired the missile, North Korea's Foreign Ministry said it did "not expect any solution to the nuclear issue or any progress in relations between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the United States" so long as the latter is led by President George W. Bush. "We will keep the path we have chosen with our heads held high," it added.

Bush called North Korean leader Kim Jong-il a "tyrant," so North Korea called Bush a "hooligan." In word and deed, Pyongyang is making it clear it won't be pushed by Washington.

Now we are told a North Korean nuclear test is imminent, while behind-the-scenes horse trading is under way to refer the nuclear dispute to the UN Security Council. Last-minute efforts are being made to restart stalled six-party nuclear disarmament talks, but chances are slim.

What on Earth does the North Korean regime, behind its fog of obfuscation, really want? Is Pyongyang determined to carry out a nuclear test? How does it intend to deal with the consequences? If it is blockaded by sea, does it plan to fire missiles? And if the nuclear crisis drags on, how will its economy, already on the brink of collapse, survive?

Nor does our own government seem blessed with any special understanding. When Seoul was optimistic about the North's return to the six-party talks, Pyongyang went ahead and declared itself a nuclear power instead. That was the beginning of a string of misjudgments in Seoul about what Pyongyang was going to do next. An insight into the innermost thoughts of the North would be profoundly welcome.

If that is not to be, then we have only one alternative: to forsake bias and wishful thinking and see and judge North Korea's actions for what they are. The government has had no explanation from North Korea why it has fired its missile at such a time. Perhaps it will now realize that it is not enough merely to object whenever the international community wants to put pressure on Pyongyang, that more -- much more -- needs to be done.