Roh Gets Tough on North Korea Clinton's North Korea Man Says Nuke Issue 'Urgent' Red in the Face or Not, Resolve the Issue

If the six-party talks collapse as Ban expects, the U.S. is likely to take the dispute to the U.N. Security Council immediately, where it was already on the table once in 2003. At the time, Washington pushed for a chairman's statement denouncing Pyongyang, but the attempt floundered on Chinese opposition. If the U.S. again takes the matter to the Council, China will play the role of the largest variable. If Beijing agrees to sanctions, North Korea will have to choose between international isolation or dismantling its program.

But the U.S. and Japan can impose sanctions on the North even if China opposes them. Japan has already implemented its own punitive measures such as effectively banning North Korean vessels from Japanese ports. In cooperation with Japan and Australia, the U.S. may also take steps such as beef up maritime patrols off North Korea and seize North Korean ships.

But military or economic sanctions against Pyongyang will not be instantaneous. “The UNSC has never taken military action," a South Korean official said. "Backed by the international community, it will simply put pressure on the North. The 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis was settled through direct negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington after the UNSC adopted a resolution.”

Political analysts say North Korea ultimately aims at direct negotiations with the U.S. Sogang University political scientist Kim Jae-cheon said, “The North is pursuing a strategy to win as many rewards as possible through negotiations, in particular, direct negotiations with Washington.”

This kind of a development would put South Korea in a diplomatic quagmire since it is unlikely to want to side with either Washington or Pyongyang. But political pundits warn that if Seoul chose to come down less than wholeheartedly on the side of the U.S. or Japan, it would jeopardize the Korea-U.S alliance.

(englishnews@chosun.com )