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While in France, President Roh Moo-hyun delivered his view Sunday that comments on North Korea's collapse would not be welcomed by stating that, "If the Korean government has to get red in the face at someone, we have no other way but to do so." One day earlier in Poland, he said, "Because China supports North Korea and because we don't want [to see it fall], there is almost no possibility that it will collapse."
The theme of the North suddenly imploding may be worth studying in academic and theoretical terms, but on the diplomatic stage, it seems to be a sensitive issue that can hardly be referred to. For the Korean president to openly discuss the state's unavoidable collapse or the impossibility of this happening would narrow the width of maneuvering in Seoul's North Korea policy and bilateral negotiations with the North. Furthermore, the issue of guaranteeing the North Korean system has begun to emerge at the six-party talks and requires in-depth and detailed discussions among the parties involved. For the president to openly declare Seoul's independent stance on the issue under such circumstances could trigger confusion in relation to the strategy being pursued to wrap up the North Korean nuclear problem.
What is more concerning is that President Roh's remarks help create the impression that a confrontation is developing between South Korea and China on the one side, and the United States on the other, over the future of the reclusive regime.
Suppose the government adopted a strategy of approaching China to solve the nuclear dispute, while distancing itself from the United States. This would create diplomatic ripples as the United States is China's largest export country and that latter is ever-conscious of how the world's leading superpower would react in the event of a physical tussle with Taiwan.
This is only one of a number of areas in which China needs U.S. cooperation. If and when the United States decides to co-opt China on the North Korea question using these issues as leverage, will China side with Seoul as the government is gambling on? What does South Korea have to bind China and secure its loyalty? In the end, Korea is quite likely to be alienated by both countries. This is not a high-brow diplomatic question, but one that even a novice in the negotiating arts could easily imagine.
It is a fact that many neo-cons in the United States firmly believe that the final solution for the North Korean nuclear issue lies in replacing the current regime. If the president's remarks and the government's strategy are inclined toward recognizing neo-cons only, however, they could drive the state into a crisis by missing the bigger picture.
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