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It has been found that in 81 of 234 cities and towns across the country, deaths outnumber births. In most regions, except for metropolitan areas and some big cities, it has become difficult to find younger people and infants, particularly in rural areas. Metropolitan areas and big cities may find themselves in a similar situation in the near future. In other words, there will be more older people everywhere.
Last year, the total fertility rate (TFR) among Korean women was the lowest in the world, at 1.19, a figure much lower than the average 1.6 to 1.7 for OECD member countries and significantly lower than the 2.1 needed to maintain the current population level in this country. The TFR is the average number of babies born to women during their reproductive years between ages 15 and 49. The number of births, which once reached as many as one million in 1970 alone, fell to 493,500 last year. From 2017, 13 years from now, the country¡¯s total population will start to decrease.
Korea is becoming the fastest aging society in the world. It took France 115 years for the proportion of the population over 65 years of age to increase from seven percent of the total population to 14 percent. It took Sweden 85 years and Italy 52 years to do the same thing. It is forecast that it will take Korea just 19 years to follow suit. At present, an average of three working people between the ages of 25 and 54 support one elderly person over the age of 55. But in 2026, one working person will come to support one elderly person.
When a society not only has a high number of older people and a decreasing number of younger people, but also has a shrinking population, it is doomed to stagnate and decline. When the numbers of people who can work, pay taxes or join the military decrease, while the numbers of people who live on pension and need medicare increase, a country cannot but have financial difficulties, a reduced scale of economy and a weakened constitution. In this respect, the country¡¯s population growth and birth rate serve as an indication that the country is on the verge of decline. If it does not act immediately to come up with drastic countermeasures, it will miss a chance to put breaks on its downward slide.
The complexity of this problem lies in the fact that it cannot be solved with good social policy measures. Therefore, the government should devise comprehensive measures that take into consideration economic and taxation issues, women¡¯s employment, childcare and education, and changes in values in marriage and tradition. But most of all, the government needs to sharpen its perception of aging and decreasing birth rates.
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