Updated Mar.21,2004 19:29 KST

Uri Party Looking Dominant in Seoul
The Chosun Ilbo and Gallop Korea ran a telephone survey in 20 of 48 of Seoul's electoral districts, where the general election vote is expected to be tight. In those districts, Uri Party candidates are ahead in 17 of them, while Grand National Party candidates are ahead in only three. Moreover, in 11 of the 17 districts in which Uri Party candidates are ahead, they lead by more than the survey's margin of error, whereas in all three districts in which GNP are ahead, their lead is still within the margin of error.

Gallop Korea ran a survey in seven of those 20 districts on March 9, before the impeachment, and if we look at the changes, we see that in a space of no more than 10 days, support for Uri Party candidates shot up 18 % points. On the other hand, support for GNP or Millennium Democratic Party candidates has either stayed the same or fallen.

Of the districts where Uri party candidates led, they were ahead by 10~30 percent points in places like Jongno, Yongsan, Dongdaemun, Dobong, Seodaemun, Mapo, Guro, Yeongdeungpo, Dongjak and Gangdong. In Junggu, Gwangjin, Eunpyeong, Yangcheon, Seocho and Gangnam, Uri Party candidates were ahead by 4~8 percent points -- within the survey's margin of error. GNP candidates were ahead in Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa, but they were leading by only one point, meaning it could come down to the wire in those districts.

However, when we asked people about the possibilities of possible candidates getting elected, GNP candidates did relatively better, coming ahead in seven districts, while Uri Party candidates lead in 12 and the MDP in one.

When asked about which party voters supported, the Uri Party was way ahead at 43.9 percent, while the GNP took 22.9 percent, the MDP 6.1 percent, and the Democratic Labor Party 4.4 percent. This means that many of those National Assembly seats decided by proportional voting will likely go to the Uri Party as well.

The survey was conducted by random sampling of 500 eligible voters in each electoral district, and its margin of error is 4.2~4.4 percent points.

(Hong Yeong-lim, ylhong@chosun.com )