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The "Post-Impeachment Storm" is playing havoc with party approval ratings, with support levels for the Grand National and Millennium Democratic parties crashing since their impeachment of President Roh as support for the ruling Uri Party skyrockets.
A telephone survey taken after the impeachment vote Friday by Korea Gallop of 735 adults across the country yielded the following support levels: 32.4 percent for the Uri Party, 16.3 percent for the GNP, 8.3 percent for the MDP, and 6.1 percent for the Democratic Labor Party (the survey has a 95 percent confidence level and a maximum error of กพ 3.6 percent). A poll conducted jointly by Gallup Korea and the Chosun Ilbo on Mar. 9 -- the day the impeachment motion was drafted -- revealed support levels of 26.7 percent for the Uri Party, 18.3 percent for the GNP, and 9.3 percent for the MDP. We can see, therefore, that support levels for the Uri Party have jumped 5.7 percent, whereas conversely, those for the GNP and MDP have dropped 1~2 percent.
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Korean Police have beefed up security at the National Assembly in Yeouido and on the offices of political parties on Sunday to prevent any untoward incidents occuring following the impeachment of President Roh.
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Other media surveys have turned up similar results. A Hankook Ilbo-Media Research poll revealed support ratings of 38.2 percent for Uri, 16.2 percent for the GNP, and 7.1 for the MDP. A Dong A Ilbo-Korea Research poll revealed a 34.6 percent support rating for Uri, 15.6 percent for the GNP, and 7.7 percent for the MDP. A Yonhap-World Research poll turned up support levels of 33.4 percent for Uri, 12.1 percent for the GNP, and 5.2 for the MDP. Meanwhile, a Munhwa Ilbo-TN poll revealed support levels for the Uri Party skyrocketing from 29 percent two weeks ago to 47 percent.
When we put all these surveys together, we can conclude that the gap in support levels between the Uri and Grand National parties -- which was only in the single digits before the impeachment vote -- has grown to about 15 or 20 percent.
Every survey revealed that with the exception of the Daegu/North Gyeongsang Province area, the Uri Party is ahead in every region of Korea. In particular, Uri has started to pull ahead in the Busan/South Gyeongsang Province area, an area in which it had previously been lagging behind. In Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces, where Uri and the MDP had been engaged in a close fight, Uri's lead has become even more obvious.
Uri's dominant support from younger voters has grown stronger, as support levels from voters in their 30s and 40s have swelled dramatically. According to Gallop Korea, even among voters in their 50s, support levels for the GNP (22.4 percent) and the Uri Party (19.7 percent) have grown similar.
Many public opinion experts say that this "Impeachment Storm," in which the opposition parties have suffered harm while the Uri Party enjoys increased support, was something that was expected even before the vote. Said Kim Jeong-hun, president of Media Research, "Even before the impeachment vote, it was well known that public opinion [regarding the impeachment] was not good... [The changes in support levels] is an expression of disappointment in the opposition for pushing through with the impeachment despite public opinion."
The Korea Gallop poll revealed that opposition to the actual vote itself on Friday was 60.8 percent, up from the 53.9 percent who opposed the submission of the impeachment motion on Feb. 9. The Media Research poll also revealed an increase, from 65.2 percent to 69.6 percent. Korea Research president Kim Gi-yeong says, however, that the polls taken right after the impeachment vote reflect the shock felt by people over the president's powers being suspended, and we still need to watch how public opinion pans out over time.
Concerning how the "Post-Impeachment Storm" will influence the general election to be held 35 days from now, there seems to be two schools of though: one saying that the Uri Party has taken the favorable high ground and the other maintaining that it's too early to tell.
Kim Deok-gu, a director at Korea Gallop, said, "Because the Uri Party's support ratings, which were ahead even before the impeachment, have grown higher since the impeachment, they are in a favorable spot with not even one month left before the general election." Media Research's Kim Jeong-hun agrees. "If Prime Minister Goh Kun leads the us through this political situation in a stable manner and the opposition does a good public relations job concerning their reasons for impeaching [Roh], the differences [in support levels] between the opposition and ruling parties may once again narrow," he said. "But for now, the likelihood of the Uri Party riding the wave to political preponderance has increased."
On the other hand, Korea Research's Kim Deog-yeong said, "Because citizens find themselves in a very confusing situation, it's hard to judge public opinion right now... In the time left until the general election, party support levels can continue to change."
(Hong Yeong-nam ylhong@chosun.com )
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