According to surveys conducted by various media outlets and research institutes on Saturday, 42 to 50 percent of the respondents said that they would cast a "yes" confidence vote, surpassing the no-confidence side by 3 to 6 percentage points. The day after, on Sunday, a survey by KBS showed that the pro-Roh side edged the opposite side by 10 percentage points.

Nevertheless, in all opinion polls, about twice as many respondents were negative about Roh's ability to administer state affairs than were positive. Roh's approval rating ranged from 25 to 35 percent, down even from when he made the referendum statement.

On reasons why the results seem contradictory, Kim Jeong-hoon, president of the polling company Media Research Incorporated, said that people fear that greater chaos would come if the president stepped down. So although many do not like President Roh, they would vote yes on a confidence initiative for stability's sake. In fact, people in their 50s and 60s, who tend to disapprove of Roh's performance, were more likely to say yes to a confidence vote than those in their 30s and 40s. This is because the elders tend to seek stability, Kim said.

Kim Hun-tae of the Korea Society Opinion Institute said that putting the head up for an irregular vote makes people uneasy. "Conservatives do not support the president, but they also have this mentality that the office of the president should not be shaken," he said.

Kim Duk-young of the Korea Research Center noted that 20 percent of the citizens do not approve of the president's policies but want him to stay in office. These people are the critical supporters, who still have some hopes for Roh to turn his presidency around and think Roh's performance has not been so bad that he should step down.

Gallup Korea's Kim Duk-gu said that the results of the surveys would have been quite different if the main opposition party weren't also so unpopular. Those who do not like the president but also dislike the Grand National Party will likely give Roh a vote of confidence, he said, because they see no better alternatives. (Hong Yeong-lim, ylhong@chosun.com )