Since his defection in 1997, this was Hwang's first appearance in a public discussion session with civilians attending. The Grand National Party lawmaker Chung Hyung-keun hosted the discussion; on the panel were Professor Ko Yu-hwan of Dongkuk University, Professor Kim Kyung-min of Hanyang University, Professor Nam Seong-uk of Korea University, Professor Je Seong-ho of Choongang University and the senior researcher Jeon Hyeon-jun of the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Hwang told of how he learned before his defection of the presence of the North's nuclear weapons program from Kim Jong Il and other insiders. He said he was told that Pyongyang signed a contract with Pakistan in the summer of 1996 to import technology to enrich uranium-235, and had been testing nuclear weapons in an underground lab since 1992.

Hwang said he did not know exactly how far Pyongyang had come in its nuclear program. "But Kim Jong Il will never use the nuclear weapons because he knows that he will meet his end the moment he pushes the button,” Hwang said.

Hwang also said that it would be nearly impossible to conclude a military campaign against North Korea in a short period of time, because Pyongyang has put all its efforts into war preparedness, and the whole country is a virtually impregnable fortress.

On who Kim Jong Il is grooming to succeed be the next leader of North Korea, Hwang said that Chang Sung-taik, Kim's brother-in-law, would likely rise to the top spot, not Kim’s sons such as Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-un.

Hwang said that Chang is already the virtual No. 2 in power, with his older brother Chang Sung-won No. 3 and in charge of defending the capital. As the first deputy director of the Central Committee, the higher-ranked Chang knows the organization better than anyone.

Hwang talked a great deal about how to change the North. He insisted that it was important to let the world know that North Korea is part of the axis of evil that defies the democracy of the world. He said that defining a just cause to change the North and damage its political and moral stances were necessary to resolve the crisis.

In addition, Hwang said that it was necessary to win the cooperation of China in order to lead Pyongyang in the direction of reform. However, Beijing is worried that the unification of the Korean Peninsula would mean expansion of American influence to the Yalu River, so the United States and its allies need to resolve such concerns in order to win the support of Beijing, Hwang said.

Within a range that would not offend Kim Jong-il’s leadership, it is essential to stimulate the North to reform its economy, said Hwang, who suggested that the South could push the North for agricultural reform in return for economic aid and exchanges. While elementary-level economic reforms might temporarily strengthen the Kim regime, they will eventually let North Koreans contact and exchange opinions with the outer world and lead to disintegration from within. Hwang insisted that if Pyongyang takes the reform steps China did, the regime would collapse within three years. (Kim Min-cheol, mckim@chosun.com )