President-elect Roh Moo-hyun is apparently looking to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis by acting as an intermediary between the Stalinist state and the United States. Roh stressed this many times when he was a candidate, and there are reports that his defense and security consultants are extensively studying this approach.

The central point of his plan is for South Korea to take an active role in deflecting Pyongyang and Washington from their current collision course, and promoting dialogue between the two. This course can be seen as appealing to the people, however one problem is the harsh international reality that is surrounding the crisis. We should look closely at why the US is refusing to negotiate with the North; it is not a war of words or face saving, rather it is linked to the basic framework and principle of President George W. Bush's North Korea policy and world strategy.

Another problem is the inability to determine Pyongyang's intentions; it may have provoked the crisis as a gambling tactic to get negotiations started, but it could easily plow ahead and commence producing nuclear weapons. This makes playing the role of mediator even more difficult, especially as both sides are so antagonistic to each other.

It is also highly likely that the cost of mediation will outweigh the gains. The worst-case scenario will be if South Korea does nothing and becomes the subject of international criticism questioning whose side it is on. In this situation the alliance with the US will then become threatened.

For successful mediating in this nuclear crisis, it is essential to have a detailed plan and the people to carry it through, however, it is debatable as to whether Roh has the human resources for this. There is substantial and real danger in his efforts to solve the crisis.

December 26, 2002