The 16th Presidential Election has failed again to eliminate regionalism, an inveterate disease of Korean politics, according to experts evaluating it. Although a 'generation shift,' a variable factor in this election, appeased regionalism a little, the East-West confrontation within South Korea still remained as a significant factor.

Political experts said this election brought out 'transformed regionalism.' The Millennium Democratic Party, politically based on Honam region (the southwestern provinces of the country and Kim Dae-jung's political base), selected Roh Moo-hyun from the Yongnam region as its presidential candidate, while the Grand National Party, which depended upon Yongnam, chose Lee Hoi-chang from Chungcheong Province as its candidate. Thus the election eventually created a proxy battle based on regions.

President-elect Roh gained 95.2 percent of the votes from Gwangju and 93.4 percent from Chonnam Province, while the GNP's Lee obtained 66.8 percent and 77.8 percent respectively from Busan and Daegu. Roh's polling score in Honam showed not much difference in this province's voting style, since the number of votes in Gwangju and Chonnam only decreased by a respective 2.1 percent and 1.2 percent from Kim Dae-jung's score in 1997. Similarly, in the 14th Presidential Election in 1992, then presidential candidate Kim Dae-jung obtained 95.8 percent of the votes from Gwangju and 92.2 percent from Chonnam. Comparing to the 15th presidential election, GNP's candidate Lee obtained respectively 13.5 percent and 5.1 percent more votes from Busan and Daegu as well.

According to a Gallup Korea poll, the generation confrontation (voters in their 20s and 30s supporting Roh, while voters over 50 supporting Lee) did not appear in the Honam region, Daegu and Gyeongbuk Province. All generations supported Roh in Honam, while all supported Lee in Daegu and Gyeongbuk. On another hand, since President-elect Roh's hometown is Gimhae, Gyeongnam Province, the votes from Busan and Gyeongnam Province went up for him; In 13th-15th presidential elections, then candidate Kim Dae-jung obtained respectively 9.1 percent, 12.5 percent, and 15.3 percent from Busan in each election; however Roh obtained 29.9 percent from Busan.

After the election, many voters in the Yongnam region were embarrassed by Honam’s 95 percent of votes given to Roh. Kim In-suk (54, Daegu, housewife) said, "When I met my relatives after the presidential election, they told me that we acted very unwisely in this election, while Honam people have not changed at all." However, Roh Young-suk (48, Gwangju, businesswoman) said, "If the Honam region was really influenced by regionalism, we should be supporting Hahn Hwa-kap and Chung Dong-young rather than Roh Moo-hyun from Yongnam. We selected Roh for regional unity."

Professor Lee Nam-young at Sookmyung Women’s University said, "Although the so called 'Three-Kim era' ended with this election, regionalism based on two axes, Yongnam and Honam still continued. Although a variable 'generation' factor featured a new possibility of dismantling regionalism for the first time, it will very likely be resurrected in the next election if the new president fails to assign government officials and regional development budgets in order to make a regional balance."

Chung-Ang University Professor Chang Hun said the election was meaningful in that it showed the possibility of getting rid of regionalism through 'generation change,' a new variable factor. "Regionalism has vanished significantly in the metropolitan area and Chungcheong Province, and as strong support for Roh was found among young voters in their 20s and 30s in Yongnam Province, we can view it as the disappearance of regionalism in these age groups," Chang said.

Political Science Professor Lee Nae-young at Korea University also noted the 'generation gap' had affected this election more than anything else. Lee said, "Although President-elect Roh Moo-hyun obtained some 90 percent of the votes in Honam province, it is difficult to view it as a result of regionalism. Many voters above 40 have some inclination toward regionalism, while young voters in their 20s and 30s have reform minds, and those two created a synergy effect in this election,"

With respect to the future of the regionalism in the country, there were two challenging views; regionalism will fade away along with the end of the 'Three-Kim era,' or the election only reflected a temporary inclination, thus it is difficult to view it as a fundamental change.

Sookmyung's Political Law Professor Lee said although dismantling of regionalism has just begun, it is too early to talk about a fundamental change. He commented those coming into the power should make a fair deal when selecting cabinet members, while providing balanced regional development and allocating a fair budget to different regions. In addition, reform of the party to make a real nationwide party should be realized in order to reduce regional confrontation to the minimum.

(Chosun Ilbo 2002 Election Coverage Team)