Now is the time to be frank; to say something as we see and feel, as it is no longer the time to sit on the fence. If you do not face the truth, the mud slinging of politicians will not be contained and the dust will not settle.

Let's look at the figures; according to a newspaper survey last Saturday, if a multi-candidate election was held, Lee Hoi-chang would garner 36.8 percent of the vote followed by Chung Mong-joon with 21.8 percent and Roh Moo-hyun, 21.1 percent. It may be better to look back at the last three elections, which coincidentally were three candidate races.

In the 1997 presidential election, which was said to be neck and neck, Kim Dae-jung led Lee 36.8 percent to 36.6 percent in a November 22 survey. Kim won the presidency with a 1.6 percent margin. In 1992 Kim Young-sam was more than 10 percent ahead of the opposition, and Roh Tae-woo secured victory as early as October in 1987. Looking at these past events we can understand why Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon are desperate enough to even consider a world first single candidacy determined by an opinion poll.

If a single candidate is adopted between the two, polls indicate that Lee would beat Chung 42.8 percent to 36.3 percent, and Roh 44.1 percent to 33.2 percent. In general the strategy seems to be forcing a decisive battle at a time and place favorable to friends and unfavorable to the enemy. General George Patton taught that to win a battled one had to grab an enemy's nose and lead him to become unstable and then kick him hard in the groin. However, this would not be applicable to this presidential race.

The "three attacks" on Lee's so-called weaknesses; using North Korea, alleged leaching of tax funds and avoidance of military service; have all been used to no avail. Maybe fielding a single candidate could help, because those who do not support Lee; Roh plus Chung's supporters; may produce a multiplicity effect to reverse their positions.

According to a Korea Gallup survey in the metropolitan area; if Roh quits the presidential race 59.1 percent of his support would devolve to Chung, while Lee would get 23.4 percent. If Chung gives up, Roh gets 30.7 percent and Lee 50.4 percent. This indicates that even if there is a single candidate there will be no multiplicity effect and even less of a simple addition effect. More importantly 82 percent of Lee's supporters have never waived in their support and of these 82.3 percent have pledged they will vote on December 19.

What makes them so united and loyal to Lee? Is it charisma, humanity or a vision for the future? No, it is a judgment on the Kim Dae-jung government. Voting is decided in general on a picture of the future and a judgment of the past, but this time more emphasis is being placed on the latter. On September 22 a poll showed 51.8 percent of people thought the government was doing poorly, and only 27.9 percent said it was doing well.

The candidate who is seen to have inherited Kim Dae-jung's legacy will experience the same judgment, harsh as it is, and is shared by ruling party members who surrendered to the opposition last night. In the end the fundamental cause of the situation is the people's collective mind, which the ruling groups have damaged, and this cannot be avoided by either the single candidate strategy or running independently.

The people are now asking those who are crying for the continuation of this government, what were they doing when it made policies that gave pain to them. They should answer this before they start to campaign.

(Chosun Ilbo Chief Editorial Writer) November 13, 2002