President Bush's remarks about an “axis of evil” comprising Iraq, Iran, and North Korea surprised many South Koreans. There is great concern in the ROK that his statement marks the end of any effort to improve US-DPRK relations. Equally worrisome for South Koreans is the risk that America's hard-line policy towards Pyongyang will damage North-South ties.

It is understandable that South Koreans were disturbed by Bush's “axis of evil.” His comments served no useful purposes. Most of the allies oppose military action against Iraq, the Iranian opposition has been undermined because it now runs the risk of being accused of being puppets of the Americans, and the United States will now get blamed by South Koreans for the lack of progress in North-South relations.

Even without the added commotion created by the State of the Union address, South Korean perceptions of the consequences of America's North Korea policy hinder ROK-US relations. Many South Koreans believe that improvements their relations with the North require a breakthrough between Pyongyang and Washington. Consequently, the believe the lack of American efforts at a genuine “engagement” of North Korea is partly responsible for the lack of progress in the fledgling inter-Korean relationship.

Such an analysis is, however, mistaken for several reasons. First, the United States and North Korea have relatively little to talk about. They can, of course, discuss missiles and WMD issues but there is little room for their relations to really expand. North Korea has no money so even without sanctions it will not buy American products. It has nothing to sell to the US market and American investors have no interest in investing in the DPRK; if they want cheap labor there are numerous better locations in Asia and the North has no domestic market to speak of. They are separated from one another by 8,000 kilometers of Pacific Ocean waters.

South and North Korea do have a lot to talk about. The problem is that the North has refused to make any concessions. It has not reopened the inter-Korean railroad, has only agreed to a few minuscule family visits, refused to reciprocate Kim Dae-Jung's Pyongyang visit, and has taken no steps towards economic renewal. In doing so, Kim Jong-il has humiliated Kim Dae-jung and provided ammunition for South Koreans hostile to engagement.

Second, whatever the faults of the US administration's policies, North Korea has done its best to prevent an improvement in US-DPRK ties. It refused the agreement proffered by the Clinton administration. It has been uncooperative in the KEDO process. It has engaged in provocative naval incursions in Japanese territorial waters.

Third, the principal responsibility of the United States in Korea is to assist in the defense of the ROK against DPRK aggression and, if possible, to help alleviate North-South tensions. The United States, however, has other obligations. It play a role in the defense of Japan and therefore must take into account its interests (Japan also plays a major role in the defense of South Korea, hosting US bases and being committed to provide rear-area support to American forces). It also has global responsibilities, which force Washington to take a broader view of DPRK issues, especially the missile and nuclear ones.

Nevertheless, it should be understood that, regardless of the ill-advised and counter-productive statements of George W. Bush, nothing that the United States has done in the past decade has prevented the North from improving its ties with the South. Washington has let South Korea implement its sunshine policy and continued to provide the ROK with the military backing which allows it to negotiate from a position of strength. The obstacle to improved relations between the two Koreas is North Korea, not the United States.

(Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute)