Election Outcome Depends on Voter Turnout

Both the ruling and the opposition parties on Sunday predicted that turnout will be the key decider in who wins the general election on Wednesday, since the race is extremely close. In a poll of voters by the National Election Commission from April 1 to 3, 58.1 percent replied that they will definitely vote.

These so-called active voters made up 59.5 percent in local elections on June 2, 2010; 63.4 percent in the 2008 general election; and 77.2 percent in 2004. But actual turnout was 5 to 15 percent less.

Given that trend, turnout in this election is unlikely to exceed 55 percent. They key, many believe, is whether young people can be persuaded to come out. Their votes proved crucial in determining the winner of the by-election for Bundang, Gyeonggi Province, on April 27 last year and in the Seoul mayoral by-election on Oct. 26. Experts said their participation will play a huge role not only in Seoul but in the whole country.

The weather is also often a factor, and the Korean Meteorological Administration predicted that rain starting Tuesday, will carry on until Wednesday morning, which could persuade voters from using their day off for excursions and cast their votes instead.