Kim Dae-joong

What is happening in North Korea? It is exceptional that Wang Jiarui, the head of the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department, is visiting Pyongyang only four months after Premier Wen Jiabao went there. Reports have it that Kim Jong-il is to visit China. Such frequent high-level contacts between the two countries show that developments demanding urgent negotiation or persuasion have taken place.   

The domestic situation in North Korea is also unusual. Personnel reshuffles following the disastrous currency reform, the crackdown on protests and food shortages are enough to cause suspicions that there are problems with Kim Jong-il's hold on the country. There is also confusion in the North's South Korea policies. While calling for a dialogue about the resumption of package tours to Mt. Kumgang and Kaesong and increased wages at the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex on the one hand, the North is lobbing artillery shells into the West Sea near the maritime border. That may be due to differences between the party and the military, or it may be an attempt to camouflage internal problems.   

Jack Pritchard, former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, in a column for the Chosun Ilbo on Friday, said that things in North Korea "changed in early October." Noting that the UN sanctions over the North's second nuclear test and the resolute attitude taken by South Korea and the U.S. cowed Pyongyang for a while, he said, "During a trip to Pyongyang in late November, I got the distinct impression that Pyongyang had been given a new lease of life... I attribute this change in attitude to the assistant (and perceived assurances) Pyongyang received during Wen's visit a month earlier."

The North's change in attitude may have something to do with a changed attitude in China. Experts feel that the game of one-upmanship and conflict between Washington and Beijing, involving U.S. pressure on the yuan, Obama's upcoming meeting with the Dalai Lama, weapons sales to Taiwan, and competition in naval strength, have prompted China to threaten U.S. efforts to neutralize the North and use North Korea and its nuclear development programs as leverage. A typical example is Beijing's move to recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear power. The Washington-Tokyo conflict over the removal of the Futenma base, along with Washington-Beijing squabbles, will have important effects on the Korean Peninsula's security environment. All this seems to have prompted Pyongyang's return to brinkmanship.

Yet it is in these circumstances that an inter-Korean summit is being discussed. The origin is President Lee Myung-bak. During an overseas tour in late January, he told the foreign press he was "always ready" to meet Kim Jong-il, perhaps even within the year. Immediately upon returning home, he told the Cabinet the two Korean leaders should meet, always provided that the summit offers no reward to the North.

This may give the impression that Lee is impatient, but there is no hurry at all. Given the North's internal situation and changes in the security situation around the Korean Peninsula, Seoul should be ready to grab the first chance to strike out. However much an inter-Korean summit is needed, now is not the time. If the government feels it cannot sit idle and wants to seize the initiative, why not hold some kind of senior meeting first?

It would bring behind-the-scenes inter-Korean contact into the light of day. The nuclear issue, repatriation of South Korean prisoners of war and abduction victims, reunions of families separated by the Korean War, package tours and security guarantees could be discussed before a summit.

Lee's remarks suggest that Pyongyang wants a reward for agreeing to a summit. In that event, any summit would only be a repeat of past summits. Holding high-level talks first could relieve Lee of this burden. What is most important is finding out what is happening in the North.

By Chosun Ilbo columnist Kim Dae-joong