Asian Economies Face Double Whammy

Export-dependent Asian economies are suffering from a double problem. One part is the continuing weakness of the U.S. dollar and accompanying depreciation of the Chinese yuan, which is hurting the price competitiveness of products exported by Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

The other is that they are being pressured by the international community to reform their economic structures to become more focused on domestic consumption as a way of relieving a perceived imbalance in international trade.

China unpegged the yuan from the U.S. dollar in July 2005 and adopted a currency basket system, a more flexible exchange rate. Over the following three years, China allowed the yuan to appreciate 16 percent against the dollar. But in July of last year, the yuan was re-pegged at around 6.82 to the dollar.

As the dollar weakens, so does the yuan. After peaking in March of this year, the dollar has weakened 24.3 percent against the won, 10.4 percent against the Singapore dollar, 7.7 percent against the Thai baht and 9.3 percent to the Malaysian ringgit. If the yuan weakens, the price tags on products exported by Korea, Singapore, Thailand and other countries will become less attractive in major overseas markets. "If you have one large economy in Asia lock itself against the U.S. dollar, everyone feels pressure," Frederic Neumann, Asia economist for HSBC in Hong Kong, told the Wall Street Journal.

Central banks in Asia, including the Bank of Korea, are trying to keep their own currencies from strengthening by mopping up excess dollars in their foreign exchange markets. Korea's foreign currency reserves surged by $8.8 billion in September compared to the previous month, leading to projections that they will swell to record levels in October or November. Thailand and Taiwan already set new records in foreign currency reserve levels last month.

But Asian countries have also been labeled by the international community as the culprits of a global imbalance. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged Asian countries to "revise" their roles in global trade and said trade imbalances needed to be rectified.

But experts expect the yuan to continue weak until Chinese exports return to pre-crisis levels. "Until the downturn, there was an appreciation in the yuan and that was a big part of Beijing's strategy to rebalance their economy," Brian Jackson, a senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, told AFP. "That got derailed by the global downturn. Until they see stronger evidence that the external demand situation is better, they are going to keep the currency on hold."

China has been buying up dollars to keep its own currency from strengthening, leading the country's foreign currency reserves to reach a record $2.27 trillion.

englishnews@chosun.com / Oct. 27, 2009 12:06 KST