North Korea fired seven Scud-class ballistic missiles on Saturday. A South Korean government source said, "We assume that the missiles North Korea fired are two Scud-C missiles with a range of 500 km and two Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 km -- two types that were known already -- plus three Scud extended-range missiles, no details of which were known here." The new Scud-ER with a range of 1,000 km is considered a particular threat to Japan because it is an improved version of the conventional Scuds with longer range and greater accuracy.

But the missile launch appeared "aimless and without a clear message," compared with previous provocations, a South Korean security official speculated. If it was trying to attract U.S. attention on American Independence Day, the North would have fired a long-range missile that could reach the U.S. mainland, but the only missiles fired were short- and medium-range.

North Korea in the past frequently achieved results by conducting a nuclear or missile test at a politically or diplomatically opportune time. But this year the tests apparently have nothing to do with the outside situation and carry no clear message, experts say. The North conducted a nuclear test on May 25, American Memorial Day, even before U.S. President Barack Obama, who had expressed readiness for dialogue with the North, set his North Korea policy directions. It fired several medium and short-range missiles right after the nuclear test in May, all without clear aim given that the U.S. was not within their range.

There is speculation that the North's constant grandstanding has caused a kind of "provocation fatigue" abroad, which led to a more tightly-knit net of sanctions and pressure on the North.

Prof. Nam Joo-hong of Kyonggi University said North Korea has been doing several things "whose diplomatic goal is not as clear as it used to be" at a time when leader Kim Jong-il's health is deteriorating and he has apparently appointed a successor. "I suspect that there is some problem in the policy making process," he added. Prof. Lee Jo-won of Chung-Ang University said, "That the North has fired lots of missiles that each cost more than US$1 million without any tangible diplomatic aim is proof that there is a problem within the North Korean regime."

It appears that hardline military leaders are gaining the upper hand in the process of selecting Kim's successor, and North Korea's foreign policies are determined not by Kim or the Foreign Ministry, but by military brass. "I understand that since Kim collapsed and recovered, he hasn't been making decisions about everything the way he used to," a North Korea expert said. "It seems the North is continuing military provocations without political or diplomatic effects because military hardliners, such as People's Armed Forces Minister Kim Yong-chun and Vice Chairman of the National Defense Commission O Kuk-ryol have a bigger role."

A Cheong Wa Dae official said if the missiles were fired for internal purposes, either to keep the population in line or to satisfy the military brass, "this in itself is proof that North Korea's internal situation is unstable."