East Asia to Lead the Global Economy 10 Years Hence
East Asia is widely expected to become the center of the global economy 10 years from now. The International Monetary Fund predicts the GDPs of the 10 ASEAN countries plus Korea, China and Japan are expected to surpass that of the 16 member nations of the euro zone this year while rivaling the U.S. economy by 2014.
The Asia Development Bank Institute forecast the combined economies of Korea, China, Japan and the 10 ASEAN member countries (US$24.8 trillion) will surpass the U.S. economy ($23.8 trillion). Advanced Western countries will see economic growth slow due to massive fiscal debt and shrinking consumption, while Asia is expected to see rapid economic expansion.
Korea is expected to maintain its position as the third economic power in East Asia after China and Japan. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the U.S.' stake in global GDP will fall from 24.4 percent this year to 19.7 percent in 2020, while China's GDP will account for 13.8 percent by 2020, up from 8.9 percent this year, making it the world's second-largest economic power.
Following the rise of newly-emerging economies, the number of people living in cities around the world is expected to rise from 3.47 billion this year or 51 percent of the global population to 4.18 billion by 2020 or 55 percent. As a result, the number of mega cities populated by more than 10 million people is forecast to rise from 20 in 2005 to more than 30 in 2020. There were only two mega cities in the 1950s -- New York and Tokyo. Ten years from now, the G20, which includes a number of emerging economies, will replace the old G7 as the group leading global diplomatic and military policies as well as economic issues.